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Adaptive Investment Approach
The concept of Adaptive Investment Approach〔()〕 (AIA), first proposed by Ma (2010, 2013, 2015), is the name given to the investment strategies that under which investors can constantly adjust their investments to reflect market conditions such as the volatility of investments, the return or the current condition of the market(Bull or Bear). The purpose of the approach is to achieve positive returns regardless of the timing in the investing environment. The AIA is a product of the theory of Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) proposed by Lo (2004, 2005, 2012). In contrast to Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), AMH regards markets as a constantly adaptive process from which the market is moving from inefficiency to efficiency, thus allowing developments in economies and behavioral finance factors to be accounted for in driving market returns.
The two deep bear markets in the first decade of the 21st century challenged the conventional wisdom such as Efficient Market Hypothesis or Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). Many of the assumptions behind Efficient Market Theory and MPT, like the assumed direct positive relationship between risk and return, stable volatility and correlation across time, were shown to fall short when attempting to explain behavior in the market. A use of the Efficient Market Theory is a strategy dubbed the Buy and Hold that makes no use of market timing to achieve desirable returns. The notion is that in the case that all fundamental information is utilized; an investor can gain no benefit from trying to time the market. The practice can be useful when the market is in an upswing, but it can lead to large losses occasionally that can destroy investors' wealth and confidence. The lack of confidence can lead to the investor failing to capitalize on the market rebound.
As an alternative, the adaptive market hypothesis is an attempt to combine the rational principles based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis with the irrational principles of the market because of human psychology. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that market efficiency is not an absolute circumstance, but instead it can be seen as a constantly adaptive process of moving from market inefficiency to efficiency. The understanding of this concept can help investors take advantage of arbitrage opportunities and time the market more effectively.
Adaptive investment approach aims to deliver consistent returns by adapting to the ever-changing market conditions. There are many deviations of how to develop an adaptive approach but three methods are particularly interesting:
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抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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